Tom Hanna's Lifestream

With what's likely to be a week of down economic indicators this week, the devil will be in the details. Starting the week off is a Treasury International Capital report, worth watching to see what those details are when it comes to foreign investor confidence in the US economy and the dollar. A similar concern is the current account numbers due out Wednesday: though trade deficits have been falling, total trade has also fallen putting strain as the current account deficit increases as a percent of trade. In the housing stats due out Monday and Tuesday, the most important detail will be the buyer traffic numbers from the Housing Market Index. With huge inventory surpluses in new homes, more down numbers in housing starts are the best possible outcome though they do reflect a short term drag on growth in other areas. Inflation figures due out Tuesday and Wednesday won't have the usual importance for Fed watchers, as Fed action does seem so set in stone for the immediate future. The big thing to watch for is accelerating increases in price levels that could hurt consumer confidence as it starts to stabilize. Big inflation numbers could nip any budding recovery before it gains any traction. The Federal Reserve announcement Wednesday will be most important for the details of Fed outlook on the economy and the esoteric tidbits of the plans for term lending facilities, as the federal funds rate is unlikely to change. More important from the Federal Reserve is likely to be Ben Bernanke's appearance Friday before the National Convention of the Independent Community Bankers of America, a group rumored to be highly dissatisfied with the federal bailout of their larger poorly run competitors. Any announcement of policy changes that would give a boost to these smaller banks could be positive for the small businesses and consumers that depend on them, though it could shake up markets.

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Indicators

March Empire State Manufacturing Survey from the New York Federal Reserve Bank February Industrial Production from the Federal Reserve Board Housing Market Index from the National Association of Homebuilders and Wells Fargo Treasury International Capital

Housing Starts from the Commerce Department Producer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Leading Index for France from the Conference Board Weekly Redbook Retail Index

Federal Open Market Committee Announcement from the Federal Reserve Board Current Account from the Commerce Department Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Leading Index for Germany from the Conference Board Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Petroleum Inventory Report and This Week in Petroleum from the Energy Information Administration

Leading Index from the Conference Board Weekly Jobless Claims report from the Employment and Training Administration Weekly Money Supply (M1 and M2) from the Federal Reserve Weekly Natural Gas Report from the Energy Information Administration

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Treasury Auctions and Announcements

11 AM: 4-Week T-Bill Announcement 1 PM: 3-Month and 6- Month T-Bill Auctions

1 PM: 4-Week T-Bill Auction

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11 AM: 3-Month and 6-Month T-Bill Announcements 11 AM: 2-Year and 5-Year Treasury Note Announcements

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*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations.

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