Tom Hanna's Lifestream

It's often said that the three most important words in real estate are «location, location, location». In this week's economic news, the three most important words are «employment, employment, employment.» The monthly jobs report due out Friday is widely expected to show job losses growing in February even beyond January's quick pace and an unemployment report pushing hard at the 8% mark. Leading up to Friday's report is the full gamut of first of the month employment reports from online and offline help wanted advertising, layoffs and the ADP national employment report. There's no reason to expect any upside surprises from any non-employment data due out this week. The main question is whether the pessimistic expectations of Wall Street economists are low enough. The manufacturing sector was buoyed last year by increasing exports, but with world trade slowing drastically and US consumer spending not picking up, manufacturing data will be dismal.
Consumer spending had held up better than might have been expectedconsidering drying up of credit and bad news all around largely because of increases in disposable income. With drops in energy prices reversing slightly in February, those personal income numbers are not likely to continue the pattern of good news.
Tuesday is likely to be the worst news day of the week, barring an even worse than expected employment report, with reports on auto sales and pending home sales. There was no fundamental basis for improvements in Big Three sales in February and their worst problem – the fact that the warranties of bankrupt companies are not worth the paper they're printed on – is no closer to a resolution than last summer. Pending home sales had shown some improvement, but with a year end peak in distressed sales, a drop in the January numbers is highly likely.

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Indicators

Personal income and outlays from the Commerce Department Manufacturing Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management Construction Spending from the Commerce Department

Motor Vehicle Sales Pending Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors Weekly Redbook Retail Index

Beige Book from the Federal Reserve Board ADP Employment Report Challengery Job Cut (layoffs) Report Non-manufacturing Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Petroleum Inventory Report and This Week in Petroleum from the Energy Information Administration

RBC CASH Index Monster Employment Index Weekly Jobless Claims report from the Employment and Training Administration Weekly Money Supply (M1 and M2) from the Federal Reserve Weekly Natural Gas Report from the Energy Information Administration

Employment Situation Report Consumer Credit from the Federal Reserve

Treasury Auctions and Announcements

11 AM: 4-Week T-Bill Announcement 1 PM: 3-Month and 6- Month T-Bill Auctions

1 PM: 4-Week T-Bill Auction

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9 AM: 30-Year Treasury Bond Announcement 11 AM: 3-Month, 6-Month and 52-week T-Bill Announcements 11 AM: 3-Year and 10-Year Treasury Note Announcements

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*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations.

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