Tom Hanna's Lifestream

This week will be fairly light in the number of economic indicator releases, but some of the numbers could be very revealing.
Tuesday's report on Wholesale Trade and Thursday's Business Inventories report, both from the Commerce Department, will give some clues as to what might happen with 1st quarter GDP as inventory buildup has contributed to GDP in the last couple of quarters.
Wednesday's report on International Trade will give a look at a vital sector. Exports have been a source of strength for the US economy, but perhaps more important is that US imports rebound a bit as the recession goes global. The US needs to lead the way in getting trade flows moving to help avoid the sort of protectionist measures that helped turn the relatively minor 1929 recession into the Great Depression. Retail sales figures are due out Thursday. There is plenty of indication that the news will be bad. Of course, that means there is room for upside surprise, but the markets are in one of those weird moods where bad news is seen as bringing relief closer. This is normally Fed focused, but with the Fed sidelined by a lack of ammunition, it's now fiscal policy focused. And that's where the biggest news of the week may come from, as Congress is likely to put the finishing touches on a fiscal stimulus package early in the week.

Day / Date





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Friday







Indicators

Employment Trends Index from the Conference Board

December Wholesale Trade from the Commerce Department Leading Index for the UK from the Conference Board Leading Index for Korea from the Conference Board Weekly Redbook Retail Index

December International Trade from the Commerce Department Leading Index for Spain from the Conference Board Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Petroleum Inventory Report and This Week in Petroleum from the Energy Information Administration

January Retail Sales from the Commerce Department December Inventories from the Commerce Department Weekly Jobless Claims report from the Employment and Training Administration Weekly Money Supply (M1 and M2) from the Federal Reserve Weekly Natural Gas Report from the Energy Information Administration

None

Treasury Auctions and Announcements

11 AM: 4-Week T-Bill Announcement 1 PM: 3-Month and 6- Month T-Bill Auctions

11:30 AM: 52- Week T-Bill Auction 1 PM: 4-Week T-Bill Auction 1 PM: 3-Year Treasury Note Auction

1 PM: 10-Year Treasury Note Auction

11 AM: 3-Month and 6-Month T-Bill Announcements 1 PM: 30-Year Treasury Bond Auction

None

*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations.

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