Tom Hanna's Lifestream

Economic indicators may not be the initial focus of markets Monday, as Wall Street is liable to focus heavily on early reports of a 3% increase in Black Friday retail sales, though anecdotal reports of good sales were already coming in early enough to influence Friday's trading and solidify an up week. With some economists seeing a fundamental bottom for the US stock market around Dow 6,500-7,000, a level we haven't yet reached, and some technical analysts agreeing, there may be some profit taking early in the week in spite of the good sales figures and that's where incoming economic indicators may play a role. Look to the weekly Redbook retail index (Tuesday) as a possible market mover the next several weeks as retail's big season hits high gear. With the Big Three automakers in such serious trouble that their daily financials vary more with their prospect of a government handout than any real economic fundamentals, the November auto sales (Tuesday) are likely to make little splash, except that the expected bad news may strengthen the Big Three's case in D.C.
That leaves the big news for the week coming Friday, with the Labor Department job report. The precursor numbers start Wednesday with the ADP Employment Report, Challenger Job Cut Report and the Help Wanted Online Data Series from the Conference Board, followed by the Monster Employment Index and Jobless Claims on Thursday. There's some central bank activity this week, with the Fed's Beige Book out Thursday. Though the Fed's moves are seeming less relevant, the Beige Book is still a good narrative description of the national economy district by district, great for getting the big picture in small chunks. Thursday the Bank of England and European Central Bank will announce monetary policy decisions and interest rate cuts are likely.

Day / Date





Monday





Tuesday





Wednesday





Thursday





Friday







Indicators

October Construction Spending from the Commerce Department November Manufacturing Report from the Institute for Supply Management

November Motor Vehicle Sales from the major auto manufacturers Weekly Redbook Retail Index

Beige Book from the Federal Reserve 3rd Quarter Productivity and Costs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics November Challenger Job Cut Report November ADP Employment Report November Non-manufacturing Survey from the Institute for Supply Management Help Wanted Online Data Series from the Conference Board Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Petroleum Inventory Report and This Week in Petroleum from the Energy Information Administration

Interest rate announcements from the Bank of England and European Central Bank Leading Index for the UK from the Conference Board Monster Employment Index Factory Orders from the Commerce Department Weekly Jobless Claims report from the Employment and Training Administration Weekly Money Supply (M1 and M2) from the Federal Reserve Weekly Natural Gas Report from the Energy Information Administration

Employment Situation Report from the Labor Department

Treasury Auctions and Announcements

11 AM: 4-Week T-Bill Announcement 1 PM: 3-Month and 6- Month T-Bill Auctions

1 PM: 4-Week T-Bill Auction

None

11 AM: 3-Month and 6-Month T-Bill Announcements

None

*See more information on the Financial Roadmap series here. Earnings reports are companies of interest, NOT recommendations.

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